Orlando Real Estate Market Recap: September 2026

There is no single Central Florida market right now, and any headline that gives you one number for "Orlando" is hiding the only thing worth knowing. Coming out of August, the neighborhoods where people actually live got faster. The neighborhoods where people buy second homes and short-term rentals got slower and deeper in inventory. Same metro, same month, opposite directions.

Everything below comes from Stellar MLS closed-sales data, refreshed continuously and broken out community by community — not a national average, not an automated estimate.

The metro at a glance

Across the ten flagship communities we track most closely:

• 2,347 homes actively for sale
• 341 closings in the last 30 days, part of 5,153 sales over the trailing 12 months
• 94.9% average sold-to-list ratio
• 74 average days on market

At the current closing pace that works out to roughly 6.9 months of supply metro-wide — the textbook line between a seller's and a buyer's market runs around six. So on the surface, balanced. But that 6.9 is an average of a Baldwin Park at under three months and a Celebration at fourteen, which is a bit like saying the average depth of a river is four feet.

The number I'd actually watch is the sold-to-list spread. Mainstream, primary-residence neighborhoods are closing at 96–98% of asking price. Ultra-luxury is closing at 92–94%. That six-point gap is not a sign of a weak high end — it's a sign that at $3M+ the list price is an opening position and the negotiation is real, while at $600K a well-priced house still gets close to full ask.

Community by community

Move-up & family markets

Winter Garden remains the volume engine: 1,900 sales over the trailing 12 months at a $617,941 median, 56 days on market, 97.7% sold-to-list. Last month it closed 147 homes in 47 days on average — nine days faster than its own annual pace, at a $620K median. With 589 active listings against that closing rate, Horizon West is sitting at about four months of supply. This is the tightest large market in the metro.

Lake Nona posted 441 sales at a $750K median (70 days, 97.0% of list) for the year — but the last 30 days told a better story: 30 closings at an $805K median in 52 days, at 97.4% of list. Medical City employment and the continued build-out keep absorption steady at roughly six months of supply.

Dr. Phillips closed 343 homes at a $625K median, 72 days, 96.3% of list. The trailing-30-day median of $782K is a mix shift, not appreciation — a heavier share of Butler Chain–adjacent and estate product closed in August. Days on market tightened to 58. Restaurant Row, the school zones, and the water access continue to make this the value seat between the entry market and Windermere.

Baldwin Park is the fastest market on this list and it isn't close: 115 sales at a $757,500 median and just 54 days on market for the year, with last month's eight closings averaging 37 days. Only 19 homes are actively for sale — under three months of supply. If you want in, you're waiting for inventory, not negotiating on it.

Luxury & lakefront

Winter Park now carries the highest median of any non-gated community we track: 405 sales at $1,115,000 and $531 per square foot, at 58 days and 96.6% of list. That's up from a $1.05M median in our June recap. Park Avenue, the chain of lakes, and a genuinely constrained supply of historic housing keep it liquid at a price point where most markets get slow.

Windermere closed 525 homes at a $1,040,000 median, 66 days, 96.1% of list — the broadest luxury market in the metro by transaction count. Worth noting: last month's 33 closings took 78 days on average, meaningfully slower than the annual pace, at 95.2% of list. Buyers on the Butler Chain took their time in August. For sellers, that means the first three weeks of exposure matter more than they did in the spring.

At the top: Isleworth recorded 15 closings at a $3.9M median ($767/sq ft) at 93.5% of list, and Lake Nona Golf & Country Club moved 16 homes at a $2,837,500 median ($665/sq ft) at 92.8%. Fifteen Isleworth listings are currently active against fifteen sales all year — call it a year-plus of supply. Ultra-luxury runs on its own clock, and at this level "months of supply" is less a measure of pressure than a reminder that each house waits for its specific buyer.

Bay Hill had only four closings and two active listings — too thin a sample to draw a trend from, and I won't pretend otherwise. Its 12-month figures are in the market report, but treat any single-digit-sample ratio as noise.

Master-planned & vacation

Celebration is the other half of this month's story. It holds 1,023 active listings — 44% of all active inventory across these ten communities — against 72 closings last month. That's roughly 14 months of supply. The trailing-12-month median is $495,000 at 108 days; the last 30 days came in at a $447,500 median and 113 days. Sold-to-list is still healthy at 96.5%, which tells you sellers here aren't collapsing on price — they're waiting. The 34747 corridor's short-term-rental and second-home supply simply isn't absorbing at the rate the primary-residence markets are, and that pattern has now held for a full season.

What this means for you

If you're selling a primary residence in Winter Garden, Lake Nona, Dr. Phillips, Baldwin Park or Winter Park: this is a better September than the metro average suggests. Sub-60-day closings at 96–98% of ask are not a soft market. Price to the live comps in your specific community — not to the "Orlando" number — and expect a clean process.

If you're selling in Celebration or a vacation-home submarket: fourteen months of supply means your competition is 1,000 other listings, and buyers know it. The homes clearing are the ones that are photographed properly, priced against what's actually closing rather than what's sitting, and available to show on short notice. Time on market is the cost of an aspirational list price here.

If you're buying: your leverage is entirely a function of which segment you're in. In Baldwin Park you're competing; in Celebration and at the $2M+ level you're negotiating, and a 5–8% gap between list and close is normal rather than insulting. Get pre-approved either way — the well-priced house in the strong school zone still goes in under two months.

Either way: don't make a six-figure decision off a metro-wide statistic. Every community above has its own live, address-free market report — active listings, recent sales, a sold-location map, and the exact days-on-market and sold-to-list figures — updated continuously from the MLS. Browse all community market reports →

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Numbers in this recap are pulled live from the Stellar MLS as distributed by MLS GRID and reflect closed residential sales over the trailing 12 months and trailing 30 days as of September 1, 2026. Months-of-supply figures are calculated from active inventory against the trailing-30-day closing pace. Figures are aggregates; no individual property addresses are published. Data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be independently verified. — Ryan Solberg, MaxLife Realty · 321.373.3536