From the Desk of Ryan Solberg

Where Things Stand — My Honest Read on Orlando Real Estate Right Now

We're heading into Q4, and I've been getting the same question from a lot of people: is now a good time to buy? The honest answer is: it depends what you're waiting for — and most people are waiting for something that isn't coming.

Rates are in the mid-6% range. That's not 3%, and it's not 8%. Monthly payments on a $600,000 purchase at 6.5% are around $3,160 before taxes and insurance. That's real money. But I've watched buyers sit on the sidelines for 18 months expecting rates to drop to 5%, and they've watched prices in Dr. Phillips and Windermere move up another $50,000–$100,000 in the meantime. The math on waiting has not worked out for most of them.

Inventory has loosened slightly — we're finally seeing more than a handful of viable options in the $500,000–$900,000 range in southwest Orlando, which was nearly impossible in 2022. But "loosened" means 60–90 days on market for correctly priced homes, not fire sales. The listings sitting 120+ days are sitting for a reason: they're priced above what the current buyer pool will underwrite, or there's a condition issue.

What I'm Telling Clients Heading Into Winter

Florida winters are different. The slowdown that hits Minneapolis in October doesn't happen here — it goes the other direction. December through March is when we see serious out-of-state buyers: Canadians, Northeasterners, Midwest families relocating after the holidays. These aren't casual lookers. They've made a decision and they're ready to execute.

For sellers, this is not the time to sit. If you're waiting for the spring market, you're betting on more competition and higher rates of interest — but also more competing listings. I'd rather list a good home in November than fight for attention in April's crowded market.

For buyers, Q4 is genuinely underrated. Sellers who've been on the market through summer are more willing to negotiate — inspection credits, rate buydowns, price adjustments. I recently helped a buyer negotiate a $15,000 credit on a Lake Nona home that had sat since July. That negotiating room largely disappears in a hot spring market.

The Global Noise vs. the Local Signal

Yes, construction costs are elevated. Yes, there's geopolitical uncertainty. I hear it from clients constantly — they're reading national economic headlines and wondering if it changes what they should do in Orlando. Here's my take: the structural demand drivers in Central Florida are not going away. The Medical City at Lake Nona keeps growing. UCF keeps graduating students who want to stay. Orlando Health and AdventHealth are building, not contracting. The theme park corridor continues to attract international investment. These are not trends that reverse based on what happens in bond markets.

What does change with economic uncertainty: finicky buyers get more leverage, and lenders tighten slightly on jumbo products above $1M. Both of those have happened. Neither changes the fundamental case for buying in a market where job growth and population growth are structural.

I've been doing this long enough to have seen the 2008 crash and the 2020–2022 run-up. The buyers who did best in both environments were the ones who bought with a long time horizon, bought what they could actually afford (not what the bank said they could borrow), and didn't try to time the bottom.

If you're thinking about buying, selling, or investing in the Orlando area, reach out directly. I'd rather have an honest 20-minute conversation than have you make a six-figure decision based on what a national news outlet says is happening in "the housing market."

— Ryan Solberg, MaxLife Realty

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